March 17, 2011
By HELENE COOPER and MARK LANDLER
WASHINGTON — The brutal crackdown in Bahrain poses the greatest Middle East democracy dilemma yet to the Obama administration, deepening a rift with its most important Arab ally, Saudi Arabia, while potentially strengthening the influence of its biggest nemesis, Iran.
Relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia have chilled to their coldest since the American invasion of Iraq in 2003. Saudi officials, still angry that President Obama abandoned President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt in the face of demonstrations, ignored American requests not to send troops into Bahrain to help crush Shiite-led protests there. A tense telephone call between Mr. Obama and King Abdullah on Wednesday, Arab officials said, failed to ease the tensions.
“King Abdullah has been clear that Saudi Arabia will never allow Shia rule in Bahrain — never,” an Arab official who was briefed on the talks said. He said King Abdullah’s willingness to listen to the Obama administration had “evaporated” since Mr. Mubarak was forced from office.
The Saudi position is rooted in the royal family’s belief that a Shiite uprising next door in Bahrain could spread and embolden Saudi Arabia’s own minority Shiite population and increase Iranian influence in the kingdom, a fear that American officials share. But where Mr. Obama and King Abdullah have parted ways, administration officials say, is on how to handle the crisis.
American officials want Saudi Arabia and Bahrain to allow political reforms that could lead to more representation for Shiites under Sunni rule. During his telephone conversation with the Saudi king, Mr. Obama called for an end to the violence that has accelerated in Bahrain over the last few days.
He asked for a “political process as the only way to peacefully address the legitimate grievances of Bahrainis and to lead to a Bahrain that is stable, just, more unified and responsive to its people,” according to Jay Carney, the White House press secretary.
But “there’s not too much listening going on,” a senior administration official said, noting that Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton were forced to cancel visits to Saudi Arabia in recent days because the king was not willing to host them. (The official reason given was that he was ill.) “There appears to be a great deal of annoyance still,” added the official, speaking only on condition of anonymity.
A senior administration official noted Thursday that some Shiite opposition leaders had vowed not to respond in kind to the violent crackdown by the government, and to remain peaceful, raising hopes among members of the Obama administration that the Shiite opposition has not become radicalized and might still be amenable to political dialogue. “It suggests to me that the radicalization on the part of the moderate Shia has not yet occurred,” the official said.
But, he added, “Without question, there are people on the extreme end of the opposition who have been in touch with Iran.” He said that the Obama administration had tried to convey to its allies in the Persian Gulf that the governments were most at risk if they approached the unrest only from a standpoint of their own government security.
For the administration, the stakes are higher in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia than in any other Arab country facing unrest now.
“In terms of concrete American national security interests, Bahrain-Saudi Arabia is the place,” said Robert Malley, the Middle East and North Africa program director with the International Crisis Group. Saudi Arabia is the second largest foreign supplier of oil to the United States, and Bahrain is home to the United States Navy’s Fifth Fleet.
Even if the United States could wean itself from dependency on Saudi oil, the kingdom, home to the world’s largest petroleum reserves, still can rock global markets and slow economic recovery in the United States and around the world.
Beyond that, the United States has long viewed Saudi Arabia as a last bulwark against an ascendant Iran in a crucial region, and does not want Tehran stepping in to back Shiites in Bahrain or Saudi Arabia.
But where the United States and the Saudis split is over how to prevent Iran from gaining traction. While American officials say the Saudi and Bahraini governments can head off trouble by making political reforms, the Saudis believe that political reforms would only open the door to greater instability.
“Our message to Saudi Arabia is that if you want to avoid the fate of Mubarak, you need to move toward genuine and gradual reform,” said Mr. Malley of the Crisis Group. “But what the Saudis are hearing instead is that reform is actually the path to Mubarak’s fate.”
In many ways, Mr. Malley and other Middle East experts say, the crisis in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia makes dealing with Egypt and Tunisia look easy. While Egypt is another crucial American ally, Mr. Obama could publicly side with the protesters in Tahrir Square without roiling global oil markets or inviting in Iran.
The Obama administration has vested a lot of its hopes of resolving the conflict in Bahrain with the crown prince, Sheik Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa, who is leading government efforts to start a dialogue with the protesters.
The prince, a 1992 graduate of American University in Washington, was described in a 2009 diplomatic cable made public by WikiLeaks as “very Western in his approach.”
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Showing posts with label Iraq. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iraq. Show all posts
01/09/2010 イラク米軍が戦闘任務終了
【ドバイ＝太田順尚】米軍のイラクでの戦闘任務が31日、正式に終了した。約５万人の駐留米軍は2011年末の完全撤退を視野にイラク治安部隊の訓練、支援に特化することになり、イラク戦争は03年３月の開戦から７年５カ月を経て大きな節目を迎えた。マリキ首相は同日、「イラクは今日、主権と独立を得た」と述べ、今後の治安維持に自信をにじませた。ただ、宗派間の対立や過激派によるテロが続く中、新政権樹立は難航しており政情安定には課題が山積している。
31日、イラクを訪問したバイデン米副大統領(左)とイラクのマリキ首相（バグダッド）＝ロイター
マリキ首相は「イラク治安部隊は米軍の任務終了後も治安を維持できる能力がある」とも強調。31日の式典出席のためバグダッド入りしたバイデン米副大統領も、イラクの治安について「まったく問題なくなるだろう」との見通しを示した。
すでに米戦闘部隊は19日に撤収を完了。オバマ大統領は31日にテキサス州の米陸軍基地を訪問し、イラクから帰還した米軍兵士を慰労する。
ただ、米軍が駐留した７年５カ月は、度重なる暴力とイスラム教シーア派とスンニ派による根深い対立が暗い影を落とした日々だった。北部のクルド人を含めた民族間の争いも激しさを増した。
さらに開戦後には国際テロ組織アルカイダ系のテロリストらが流入し、治安が極度に悪化。06、07年には毎月２千人を超える市民が犠牲となり、内戦状態と形容されるほどの事態に陥った。開戦以来の民間人の死者は10万人に上り、4400人の米兵が犠牲となった。
バイデン副大統領は31日、マリキ首相らと相次ぎ会談し、新政権樹立に向け難航する連立協議の進展を促した。７月に続く副大統領のイラク訪問は、米国が抱く米戦闘部隊なきイラクへの懸念の大きさを物語る。
米軍の今後の任務は軍22万人、警察44万人からなるイラク治安部隊への助言や訓練などに移行。治安が急激に悪化した場合のみ、イラク治安部隊の戦闘を補佐するとしている。だが、米戦闘部隊撤退を見透かすように軍施設や警察署を狙ったテロが相次ぎ多くの市民が巻き込まれた。マリキ首相は治安部隊に厳戒態勢を指示したが、治安部隊の能力そのものへの懸念から、オバマ政権は戦闘任務の終了を急ぎすぎたとの声も出ている。
治安活動を指揮すべき政治も、３月の連邦議会選後の連立協議が難航し、次期政権の枠組みがまだ見えていない。泥沼の宗派間抗争が続けば、06、07年の状況に逆戻りする懸念もある。イラク国民は、米国の戦闘任務の終了を、自立への期待と不安が入り交じる気持ちで迎えている。
31日、イラクを訪問したバイデン米副大統領(左)とイラクのマリキ首相（バグダッド）＝ロイターマリキ首相は「イラク治安部隊は米軍の任務終了後も治安を維持できる能力がある」とも強調。31日の式典出席のためバグダッド入りしたバイデン米副大統領も、イラクの治安について「まったく問題なくなるだろう」との見通しを示した。
すでに米戦闘部隊は19日に撤収を完了。オバマ大統領は31日にテキサス州の米陸軍基地を訪問し、イラクから帰還した米軍兵士を慰労する。
ただ、米軍が駐留した７年５カ月は、度重なる暴力とイスラム教シーア派とスンニ派による根深い対立が暗い影を落とした日々だった。北部のクルド人を含めた民族間の争いも激しさを増した。
さらに開戦後には国際テロ組織アルカイダ系のテロリストらが流入し、治安が極度に悪化。06、07年には毎月２千人を超える市民が犠牲となり、内戦状態と形容されるほどの事態に陥った。開戦以来の民間人の死者は10万人に上り、4400人の米兵が犠牲となった。
バイデン副大統領は31日、マリキ首相らと相次ぎ会談し、新政権樹立に向け難航する連立協議の進展を促した。７月に続く副大統領のイラク訪問は、米国が抱く米戦闘部隊なきイラクへの懸念の大きさを物語る。
米軍の今後の任務は軍22万人、警察44万人からなるイラク治安部隊への助言や訓練などに移行。治安が急激に悪化した場合のみ、イラク治安部隊の戦闘を補佐するとしている。だが、米戦闘部隊撤退を見透かすように軍施設や警察署を狙ったテロが相次ぎ多くの市民が巻き込まれた。マリキ首相は治安部隊に厳戒態勢を指示したが、治安部隊の能力そのものへの懸念から、オバマ政権は戦闘任務の終了を急ぎすぎたとの声も出ている。
治安活動を指揮すべき政治も、３月の連邦議会選後の連立協議が難航し、次期政権の枠組みがまだ見えていない。泥沼の宗派間抗争が続けば、06、07年の状況に逆戻りする懸念もある。イラク国民は、米国の戦闘任務の終了を、自立への期待と不安が入り交じる気持ちで迎えている。
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