20/07 Finding work (with a little help from friends)


Jobless recoveries

Jul 20th 2011, 16:54 by A.M. | LONDON
SOCIAL connections help when looking for a job. In America, the slow recovery means firms are less likely to advertise vacancies, and more likely to rely on word of mouth. In Italy, jobseekers with friends in jobs are likely to find employment faster than jobseekers whose friends are unemployed.
The American research comes from Steven Davis, Jason Faberman and John Haltiwanger, who have designed an index for the “recruitment intensity” of hiring companies. Aggressive recruiters advertise positions, interview extensively and make immediate offers. Other firms rely on word of mouth and are less likely to make offers to suitable candidates. In the wake of the recession, the index fell to its lowest in a decade:
It slipped below the levels of the previous recession by early 2007 and has not recovered since. Employers are apparently unwilling to expend time or money to fill vacancies, safe in the knowledge that there is an excess supply of qualified candidates. This may be one reason that the rate of exit from unemployment in America is half that of the last recession. Other countries have not seen such as rapid decline.
The Italian research, by Alfonso Rosolia and Federico Cingano, overcomes an endogeneity problem. Of course jobseekers with employed friends are likely to find jobs faster; they likely share qualities, like educational and professional experience, with their employed friends. However, Mr Rosalia and Mr Cingano control for this by examining employees with equal qualification levels, made redundant by the same company at the same time. Those with more employed friends still tend to find new employment faster, apparently due to the informational advantages of having friends in jobs who learn about vacancies.
This makes high-unemployment recessions particularly damaging in the long term. They break informational social networks through which jobseekers are directed to vacancies. As unemployment rises within a social network, it disrupts one of the avenues by which members of the network may find a new job.
We already know it pays not to be young or unemployed if you are looking for a job. Apparently it is not wise to have unemployed friends either. The message is bleak: the slow recovery is likely to increase social immobility.
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20/07 Bonuses for Billionaires


OP-ED COLUMNIST

By 

Published: July 20, 2011



The first few times I heard House Republicans talk about our budget mess, I worried that they had plunged off the deep end. But as I kept on listening, a buzzer went off in my mind, and I came to understand how much sense the Tea Party caucus makes.
Damon Winter/The New York Times
Nicholas D. Kristof
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ROOM FOR DEBATE

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Readers’ Comments

"Here's my modest proposal ... sell Alaska back to Russia, minus the panhandle, to keep an eye on them."
JR, Canada
Why would we impose “job-crushing taxes” on wealthy Americans just to pay for luxuries like federal prisons? Why end the “carried interest” tax loophole for financiers, just to pay for unemployment benefits — especially when those same selfless tycoons are buying yachts and thus creating jobs for all the rest of us?
Hmmm. The truth is that House Republicans don’t actually go far enough. They should follow the logic of their more visionary members with steps like these:
BONUSES FOR BILLIONAIRES Republicans won’t extend unemployment benefits, even in the worst downturn in 70 years, because that makes people lazy about finding jobs. They’re right: We should be creating incentives for Americans to rise up the food chain by sending hefty checks to every new billionaire. This could be paid for with a tax surcharge on regular working folks. It’s the least we can do.
Likewise, the government should take sterner measures against the persistent jobless. Don’t just let their unemployment benefits expire. Take their homes!
Oh, never mind! Silly me! The banks are already doing that.
LET JOBS TRICKLE DOWN Leftist pundits say that House Republicans don’t have a jobs plan. That’s unfair! Granted, the Republican-sponsored Cut, Cap and Balance Act would eliminate 700,000 jobs in just its first year,according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, but those analysts are no doubt liberals. America’s richest 400 people own more wealth than the bottom 150 million Americans, and the affluent would feel renewed confidence if the Republican plan passed. We’d see a hiring bonanza. Each of those wealthy people might hire an extra pool attendant. That’s 400 jobs right there!
Cut, Cap and Balance would go even further than the Ryan budget plan in starving the beast of government. Sure, that’ll mean cuts in Social Security, Medicare and other programs, but so what? Who needs food safety? How do we know we really need air traffic control unless we try a day without it?
ROOT OUT SOCIALISM Republicans have been working to end Medicare as we know it but need to examine other reckless entitlements, such as our socialized education system, in which public schools fritter resources on classes like economics and foreign languages. As a former Texas governor, Miriam “Ma” Ferguson, is said to have declared when she opposed the teaching of foreign languages: “If English was good enough for Jesus Christ, it’s good enough for us.”
For that matter, who needs socialized police and fire services? We could slash job-crushing taxes at the local level and simply let the free market take over:
“9-1-1, may I help you?” “Yes, help! My house is burning down!” “Very good, sir. I can offer you one fire engine for $5,995, or two for just $10,000.” “Help! My family’s inside. Send three fire engines! Just hurry!” “Yes, sir. Let me just run your credit card first. And if you require the fire trucks immediately, there’s a 50 percent ‘rush’ surcharge.”
CHILL OUT ABOUT THE DEBT CEILING House Republicans like Michele Bachmann are right: If the debt ceiling isn’t raised, some solution will turn up. As Representative Austin Scott, a Republican from Georgia, observes: “In the end, the sun is going to come up tomorrow.”
We got through the Great Depression, didn’t we? It looked pretty hopeless in 1929, but in just a dozen years World War II bailed us out with an economic stimulus. Something like that’ll come along for us, too. Ya gotta have faith.
CONSIDER ASSET SALES While Democrats are harrumphing about “default,” Republicans have sagely noted that there are alternatives in front of our noses. For example, why raise taxes on hard-pressed managers of hedge funds when the government can sell assets?
Fort Knox alone has 4,600 tons of gold, which I figure is worth around $235 billion. That’s enough to pay our military budget for four months! And selling Yosemite, Yellowstone and the Grand Canyon would buy us time as well.
RENT OUT CONGRESS If the debt ceiling isn’t raised, we could also auction members of Congress for day jobs: Are you a financier who wants someone to flip burgers (steaks?) at your child’s birthday party? Why, here’s Eric Cantor! Many members of Congress already work on behalf of tycoons, and this way the revenue would flow to the Treasury.
Finally, if we risk default, let’s rent out the Capitol for weddings to raise money for the public good. Wouldn’t it be nice to see something positive emerge from the House?

•
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A version of this op-ed appeared in print on July 21, 2011, on page A27 of the New York edition with the headline: Bonuses For Billionaires.











2.
HIGHLIGHT (What's this?)
Susan L.
New York, NY
July 21st, 2011
1:43 am
Mr. Kristof, I've always thought you write superb columns - but I never realized you also do great comedy-writing. In all seriousness, I laughed hysterically while reading this. On the other hand, the absurdity and near-horror of the whole situation is almost beyond belief. I feel like I'm living in a parallel universe, where the right-wingers are a bizarre cult who have taken the rest of us hostage. Which politicians - and a pox on the majority of them (including most of the Democrats, even though I'm a staunch member of that party) - are willing to stand up for the non-wealthy and non-right-wingers among us? I'm not naive enough to think that we don't need to make serious changes to our financial structure, and we desperately need to recoup the abysmal tax cuts of the Bush regime. However; I draw the line when it comes to eradicating tax deductions for charities. They're already suffering significantly (including the small ones surviving solely on volunteerism, which are the ones I contribute to). Has this great nation really sunk so low?! We'll find out very soon....
26.
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sebouhian
fredonia, ny
July 21st, 2011
7:48 am
In the Great Depression the measures enacted by Roosevelt were bitterly fought by the Republicans and fringe groups like the Tea Party, but what was more telling was the time it took for those measures to take effect. As a child in a poor neighborhood in the South Bronx I witnessed the development of an active, empathetic community of neighbors who would respond to the sudden knock on the door by a stranger in rags, by raiding the ice box, almost bare itself, and even scouring the place for some old tattered winter clothes for him and whatever family he had. Giving, yes, with blessings, giving by the poor to the needier, strangers though they were. It was a tough neigborhood, but it understood the shame of the beggars who had no other options. I've never forgotten those days, but Mr. Kristof brought them back to the forefront, vividly, in his searing satire. The Great Depression in my neighborhood meant compassion for the outsiders, the "bums"--we used to call them--but not in derision, just in recognition that they were worse off than we were. There was goodness in those bad days. Where is it now?
27.
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Joe Bute
Pittsburgh
July 21st, 2011
7:57 am
I think our problem is branding. We should stop collecting taxes and we should start sending out "association fees". The rich are used to paying all sorts of dues and fees for private clubs and their vacation condos. So think of the US as sort of a gated community and then instead of taxes we are paying dues. When we have to go fight a war, it's like a special "assessment" (club members know the value of an assessment when they want to expand the men's locker room). Since the rich now view this country as their private club, let them pay for it in a way they can understand - and appreciate!
28.
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Jeff k
NH
July 21st, 2011
7:58 am
You've got me convinced. Let's give the Democrats back full control of the government, do away with the debt limit and see if the Democrats can continue to break the deficit spending record. By 2016, the year Obama leaves office, our currancy will be worthless (so we won't have to worry anymore about those detestable billionaires) and the Chinese will own America (so we won't have to worry anymore about those irresponsible Republicans).
75.
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ExpatAnnie
Germany
July 21st, 2011
10:28 am
Great article, Mr. Kristof! Here are a few more suggestions for how our Congress can start "sharing the pain" with the rest of us:

1. No more health and hygiene inspections at the Congressional cafeteria. If we don't need food safety, neither do they (and c'mon, what harm is a little bit of salmonella going to do?). Come to think of it, why is there even a congressional cafeteria at all? They can just go to McDonald's like everyone else.

2. Get rid of all Congressional aides and staff. Anyone who is smart enough to be elected to Congress really ought to be able to handle their own affairs using a cell phone or, at most, a laptop.

3. Close the congressional gym! It is an outrage that our taxes are being used to pay for socialized excercising. If these congresspeople want to work out, fine, but not on my dime, fellas. Go join a fitness club or get a bicycle.

Boy, this is fun. Once you get started, the list of possible cuts just goes on and on...
99.
HIGHLIGHT (What's this?)
fedelia
napa valley
July 21st, 2011
10:40 am
The current Congress, in a nutshell:

Republicans: "Let's do this and this and this! In fact, we INSIST on doing this and this and this, and it's our way or the highway! We mean it! We WILL NOT BUDGE until we get this and this and this!"

President Obama: "These ideas sound great! Let's work together to implement them!"

Republicans: "OK, now we don't like this and this and this anymore! They're terrible ideas! Obama agreed to them, so they must be bad! How dare he shove them down the throats of the American people! See, America? He was for you before he was against you!"
109.
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Tom
Sonoma, CA
July 21st, 2011
10:46 am
Please don't forget the opportunity to sell naming rights to government properties. AT&T Yellowstone, the Comcast Capitol…
131.
HIGHLIGHT (What's this?)
Al V.
Greenville, SC
July 21st, 2011
11:16 am
Kristof's "recommendation" regarding fire protection is of course reminiscent of how fire protection worked prior to the establishment of publicly funded fire companies. It used to be that fire protection was a function of one’s fire insurance, so when a fire was reported multiple fire companies would respond to the report, and determine which company had jurisdiction over the fire. If there was a question, the companies would often let the fire burn, which caused fires to spread over whole blocks in cities.

Martin Scorcese’s “The Gangs of New York” has an amusing scene where fire companies fight over the privilege of looting a burning house. I look forward to the day when the Tea Party returns us to those days of free enterprise.
146.
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Red 2
Alexandria, VA
July 21st, 2011
11:17 am
While this article is highly amusing it continues with the liberal straw man arguement about taxes and billionaires. In the US the highest tax bracket starts at $375k. $375k is a lot of money. For most Americans it's a few times thier income. However, there is no tax bracket for millionaires. $1mil is more than twice $375k. This doesn't even scratch the surface of a billionaire to which $375k is easily forgetable. Until some liberal Congressman actually proposes millionaire, ten millioniare, hundred millionaire, and billionaire tax brackets then all thier talk of GOP support to billionaires is just straw man lip service. Billionaires also don't tend to get their money via income. Typically they get their money through capital gains and investments. No one wants to raise those taxes because it would kill investment which in turn would be job killing. So while your hyper liberal article was fun and entertaining it's still just another fallacy.
273.
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David C.
Seattle, WA
July 21st, 2011
12:14 pm
While you say some nice and mean things about Republicans, you fail to capture their motivation. You write that Republicans are on the side of corporate tycoons. Republicans don't care about helping the rich get richer as much as they care about preventing government from getting too big. If you sat down with any member of the Senate on the Republican side, especially one from the Senate Steering Committee, I'm sure they'd say the same. And since their constituents believe government is too big, you can't really blame them for taking this view.
312.
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scientella
Northern California
July 21st, 2011
12:24 pm
In all seriousness the Democrats have been truly useless at agenda setting. There is good evidence that if you want to stimulate the economy putting money in the hands of the poor is the best way to do it. They spend it at once. The rich hoard. The poor spend.

Why isnt this being shouted out. What the Republicans are saying is simply wrong. Why are Democrats on the defensive????It should be the other way around.

Obama should go to a Turkish bazaar and learn to haggle for rugs. Its all fair game: You feign disinterest. You walk away. You make outrageous first offers. You come back slowly. You look askance. You play really hard to get. You threaten. And you always let the other guy meet you three quarters your way.
335.
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JR
Canada
July 21st, 2011
12:34 pm
Here's my modest proposal: To raise funds and balance the budget in the short term, the US gov't carry out the following:

-spin off the south as the Theocracy of Bornagainia, via a bond issue ('In God We Trust...');

-lease the Midwest long-term to either Archer Daniels Midland or Monsanto;

-sell Alaska back to Russia, minus the panhandle, to keep an eye on them;

-sell the southwest back to Mexico, except for Arizona, which becomes a PPP prison for white-collar crime (Official language: Spanish);

-Let Canada buy Wa., Ore. and Northern Cal (SoCal is pressing for separation anyway, and would be a dandy buffer for Mexico);

-Sell Hawaii and American Samoa to New Zealand, which already has defense and other responsibilities for the other main Polynesian Territories.

-Offer the northeast to Great Britain, in return for defense commitments, a merger of the NYSE and NASDAQ with the London Stock Exchange and a 50 year commitment from the Brits to not over boil vegetables, especially during peak tourist season.
394.
HIGHLIGHT (What's this?)
Ted
Richmond, Va.
July 21st, 2011
1:02 pm
It's rare for Mr. Kristof to write a column like this - angry, funny, political. This PROVES the Republicans have gone too far.
425.
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Rich DiGeorgio
PA
July 21st, 2011
2:32 pm
Nicholas,I am glad you are seeing the light. However, I do need to point out that we have already tried taking trickle down economics to its logical conclusion. That was a time long ago when Kings, Queens, Dukes and Lords & the a certain church had all the assets. It was called the Dark Ages.
427.
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morryb
Cleveland, Ohio
July 21st, 2011
2:35 pm
I would suggest that the Religous Right should opt out of medicare and set-up for themselves a faith healing HMO.
428.
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Mouse Woman of the Northwest Coast
Washington State
July 21st, 2011
2:36 pm
JR in Canada, #335

Would Canada please buy the Pacific Northwest? PLEASE?
457.
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Jon
VA
July 21st, 2011
4:16 pm
Rebublicans are lockstep in their crys of don't tax the wealthy, they are the job creators. My question for them is the wealthy have had the advantage of the Bush era tax cuts from day one, where are the jobs? I
don't see many being created. I see the wealthy, banks, big business alfloat with cash. Again, where are the jobs? When are they coming?
472.
HIGHLIGHT (What's this?)
AB
Maryland
July 21st, 2011
4:27 pm
Doesn't cutting the deficit translate into cutting jobs? So how many thousands of government and private sector jobs will be lost? Hello?... Hello-o?
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