09/09 Paul Krugman: Things Could Be Worse

By PAUL KRUGMAN
TOKYO

“Japan’s problems now are the same as they were in the 1990s, when you were writing about them. It’s depressing.” So declared one economist I spoke to here. “But the Japanese don’t seem all that depressed,” objected another. Both were right — and the conversation crystallized some thoughts I’ve been having about Japan’s situation, and ours.

A decade ago, Japan was a byword for failed economic policies: years after its real estate bubble burst, it was still suffering from chronic deflation and slow growth. Then America had its own bubble, bust and crisis. And these days, Japan’s record doesn’t look that bad to an American eye.

Why not? For all its flaws, Japanese policy limited and contained the damage from a financial bust. And the question in America now is whether we’ll do the same — or whether we will take a hard right turn into economic disaster.

In the 1990s, Japan conducted a dress rehearsal for the crisis that struck much of the world in 2008. Runaway banks fueled a bubble in land prices; when the bubble burst, these banks were severely weakened, as were the balance sheets of everyone who had borrowed in the belief that land prices would stay high. The result was protracted economic weakness.

And the policy response was too little, too late. The Bank of Japan cut interest rates and took other steps to pump up spending, but it was always behind the curve and persistent deflation took hold. The government propped up employment with public works programs, but its efforts were never focused enough to start a self-sustaining recovery. Banks were kept afloat, but were slow to face up to bad debts and resume lending. The result of inadequate policy was an economy that remains depressed to this day.

Yet the picture is grayish rather than pitch black. Japan’s economy may be depressed, but it’s not in a depression. The employment picture has been troubled, with a growing number of “freeters” living from temporary job to temporary job. But thanks to those government job-creation plans, the country isn’t suffering mass unemployment. Debt has risen, but despite constant warnings of imminent crisis — and even downgrades from rating agencies back in 2002 — the government is still able to borrow, long term, at an interest rate of only 1.1 percent.

In short, Japan’s performance has been disappointing but not disastrous. And given the policy agenda of America’s right, that’s a performance we may wish we’d managed to match.

Like their Japanese counterparts, American policy makers initially responded to a burst bubble and a financial crisis with half-measures. I’ve lamented that fact, but at this point it’s water under the bridge. The question is: What happens now?

Republican obstruction means that the best we can hope for in the near future are palliative measures — modest additional spending like the infrastructure program President Obama proposed this week, aid to state and local governments to help them avoid severe further cutbacks, aid to the unemployed to reduce hardship and maintain spending power.

Even with such measures, we’ll be lucky to do as well as Japan did at limiting the human and economic cost of the economy’s financial woes. But it’s by no means certain that we’ll do even that much. If the Republicans go beyond obstruction to actually setting policy — which they might if they win big in November — we’ll be on our way to economic performance that makes Japan look like the promised land.

It’s hard to overstate how destructive the economic ideas offered earlier this week by John Boehner, the House minority leader, would be if put into practice. Basically, he proposes two things: large tax cuts for the wealthy that would increase the budget deficit while doing little to support the economy, and sharp spending cuts that would depress the economy while doing little to improve budget prospects. Fewer jobs and bigger deficits — the perfect combination.

More broadly, if Republicans regain power, they will surely do what they did during the Bush years: they won’t seriously try to address the economy’s troubles; they’ll just use those troubles as an excuse to push the usual agenda, including Social Security privatization. They’ll also surely try to repeal health reform, which would be another twofer, reducing economic security even as it increases long-term deficits.

So I find myself almost envying the Japanese. Yes, their performance has been disappointing. But things could have been worse. And the case Democrats now need to make — the case the president finally began to make in Cleveland this week — is that if Republicans regain power, things will indeed be worse. Americans, understandably, are disappointed over, frustrated with and angry about the state of the economy; but disappointment is better than disaster.

10/09 「チェンジ」への皮肉

 9日の米株式相場は小幅に続伸した。「二番底」への不安がとりあえず和らいだかのようだ。

 この日のニューヨーク市内では、恒例の「ファッション・ウイーク」が開幕。メトロポリタン・オペラ劇場の脇にたった巨大テントから重低音を効かせた音楽が鳴り響き、一大ファッションショーの始まりを告げた。


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 金融危機後はシンプルなデザイン、灰色や茶色が主流だったが、前評判では、今年はよりカラフルな出品内容に変わるという。それが世相や景気を映すなら、米国の「モード・チェンジ」を先取りしているかもしれないが、見立てが正しいとは決して言い切れない。

 朝方に発表された新規失業保険申請件数は市場予想以上に改善。7月の貿易赤字も大きく減ったが、米国の産業構造が一変したとは言い難い。この日の相場を支えたのはJPモルガン・チェースなど金融株。世界的に競争力が強いIT(情報技術)と金融が米国を引っ張る構図は変わりない。

 輸出が好調で貿易赤字の減少に一役買った民間航空機。受注の浮き沈みが激しいビジネス、と見透かされており、ボーイングの株価は上昇どころか1.6%下落。オバマ政権が目指す「輸出倍増」と「製造業の復権」への道のりはまだ遠い。

 「子どもに製造業で働いてほしい親は30%だけ」――。会計監査などを手がけるデロイトがまとめた製造業に関するアンケート調査結果は、製造業再生を掲げるオバマ政権にとって皮肉だ。製造業が「生活水準の維持に大事」との回答は76%と高いが、政府の肩入れの見返りは「それほど大きくない」といった疑念があるのかもしれない。


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 18~24歳の若年層では「生活維持に大事」との回答も55%にとどまる。中間選挙が近づき、民主党の票田である製造業の労働組合に配慮して内向きな政策をとるほど、「今の米国」はしらけていっておかしくない。

 米国だけでなく、世界の注目を集めるファッション・ウイークの主役はもちろん、米国のデザイナー。しかし、その傍らでは、中国やブラジルなど新興国出身のデザイナーが「彩りを添える」と言っては失礼なほど大きな存在感を放っている。

(ニューヨーク=武類雅典)


source: nikkei

10/09 振興銀破綻、ペイオフ発動 - 金融庁・預保機構、預金1000万円を週明け払い戻し

金融庁・預保機構、預金1000万円を週明け払い戻し
業務停止3日 債務超過1804億円
 経営再建中の日本振興銀行(東京・千代田)は10日朝、債務超過に陥ったと金融庁に申請した。金融庁は同行の経営破綻を認定、3日間の業務停止命令を出した。自見庄三郎金融相は預金を一定額までしか保護しないペイオフを初めて発動すると表明。週明け以降に1預金者あたり「元本1000万円とその利息」まで預金の払い戻しに応じる一方、これを超える部分は支払額が一部カットされる見通しだ。(関連記事総合ビジネス面、社会2面に)



記者会見する振興銀の小畠社長
(10日午後、東京都千代田区)



 振興銀は同日朝、臨時取締役会を開き、自力再建を断念。預金保険法74条5項に基づき「その財産をもって債務を完済することができない」と金融庁に申し出た。東京地裁にも民事再生法の適用を同日中に申請する。8月末時点の債務超過額は1804億円に上る。

 金融庁は振興銀の破綻を認定し、10日から12日まで3日間の業務停止命令を出した。これによって、振興銀の預金者が預金の払い戻しを申し込めるのは来週月曜日からになる。ただ9日までに契約済みの融資は予定通り実行する。

 金融庁は経営陣に代わって業務運営にあたる金融整理管財人に預金保険機構を任命した。振興銀は13日午前9時から本店など16店舗で営業を再開、預金保険機構の管理下で預金払い戻しや融資などの業務を継続する。

 振興銀は一般の銀行と異なり、取り扱う預金の種類が運用目的の定期預金だけで、当座預金や普通預金など決済性預金は扱っていない。預金の払い戻しも郵送やインターネットで申し込むと、5営業日以降に他の銀行の口座に振り込む仕組み。

 直近の振興銀の預金者約11万人のうち、1000万円を超えるお金を預けている預金者は全体の3%の3560人程度で、大半の預金者の預金はすべて保護。預金総額約5800億円のうち、一部払い戻しされない可能性がある預金は、120億円程度とみられる。

 ペイオフ発動は1971年に預金保険制度が発足して以来初めて。振興銀は銀行間市場からの資金調達がなく、他の金融機関が連鎖破綻する懸念はない。不良債権比率が極めて高いこともあり、金融庁は公的資金投入には国民の理解が得られないと判断したもようだ。

 振興銀は2004年に中小企業専門銀行として発足したが、金融庁検査を巡る銀行法違反(検査忌避)容疑で、警視庁が木村剛前会長、西野達也前社長らを逮捕。社外取締役だった小畠晴喜(作家名・江上剛)社長が自力再建を目指していた。